From the 10th to 16th of March the World Tour peloton races Tirreno-Adriatico. This is in itself one of the most important stage-races of the year; but simultaneously it serves as preparation for the spring classics and also as a test for the Giro d’Italia. It will be a week of high-octane racing across Italy! We preview stage 5.
The fifth day of racing is not too different from the previous one, with tons of climbs scattered all across the 205 kilometers into Pergola. The climbs are not too hard, but the difference on this day is that the final ones are the tougher ones, and we could see some moves from the GC riders before the stage ends.
Stage 5: Ascoli Picena – Pergola, 204.9 kilometers
Perhaps it doesn’t look like it, but there are 3500 meters of climbing here. Even raced conservatively, you struggle to imagine a sprint deciding the stage (unless it’s between a very select few who can climb very well). Chances of a breakaway succeeding are also not low, as it’s neither a full sprint or GC day, and many will not want to take responsibility. With a decent amount of climbing early on, there is definitely terrain for the strong men to attack.
The final two climbs will be the key moments of the day. The first is 6.3 kilometers long at 4.7% ending with 26.5 kilometers to go and having a technical descent afterwards – which means a fast-paced ascent, with a fight for position at the top. It won’t take long before the riders reach the base of the final one.
Into Monterolo (3.9Km; 6.6%) the peloton goes, and the climb is very inconsistent, with steep ramps from start to finish but some less steep areas as well. We will have double-digit gradients, and spots for the GC riders to try and make the difference. It wil be an open finale where puncheurs can certainly have a big say, as the climbs on the day are not long and are largely explosive.
The climb ends with only 7.5 kilometers to go and the descent will go by in a flash, it is very steep and not very technical, meaning gaps will open up quickly. The final 4 kilometers will then be flat (with a slight uphill ramp entering the final kilometer) but not technical, so it’s still possible to conduct a chase. All-in-a stage designed for some chaos.
Bad, bad, bad… If you think so far the weather has not been good in this race, it should get even worst. There should be some rain early in the day, with a cloudy sky, but the wind is going to blow incredibly strong. No the route won’t be in very exposed road but the very strong southwestern wind means that there will be countless crosswind sections. Echelons are likely and it can happen right from the start of the day. A very dangerous day for the GC.
The Favourites
The big question on the day will ultimately be if this is one for the GC riders or puncheurs. Because this is a race with only one mountain stage, that is not that hard, you will certainly see riders like the in-form Tom Pidcock and Ben Healy fight for the overall classification but a day like this is one where they can definitely strike. Looking at the climbs ahead, a little long but still explosive, it favours the puncheurs in regular conditions.
You have an interesting INEOS who has been wildly aggressive despite leading the race, and they have been doing a good job at that. If the opportunity to create echelons appears they can very well try to do it again and Filippo Ganna can look forward to this day. Even in regular conditions, in his current form, he can keep up with most riders in the field. Mathieu van der Poel for example would have wanted a less tough day overall, but I think the difficulties won’t be too many for him and he will indeed be in the finale once again and within a shot of winning either with an attack or even a sprint.
The likes of Marc Hirschi, Romain Grégoire and Roger Adrià will also be very dangerous for this kind of climb and finale, they will be at the front; others such as Andrea Vendrame and Magnus Cort Nielsen can be very dangerous if it is reeled back in towards another spring… Riders like Alex Aranburu, Simone Velasco and Pelayo Sanchez also have the experience in such explosive finales and can surprise.
But the GC men will be active. They have to actually, because Filippo Ganna is looking scary strong, and they will want to take time on him to fight for the win/podium/top 5 in my honest opinion. Juan Ayuso for example has been very active and I can’t see him try and stay hidden. Thus far he’s actually exposed himself more than he should, but he’s shown tremendous form by doing so and he has the explosivity to make damage in such a climb – with Adam Yates being a different kind of rider, but one to watch.
The likes of Richard Carapaz, Kévin Vauquelin and Giulio Ciccone could under regular conditions also make quite an impact on a climb like this, having the climbing legs but also that necessary explosivity to create a gap.
But there is also obviously a whole heap of GC riders that will be there, who won’t usually be able to make the difference but they can take advantage of a well-timed move or some luck to win the stage. Pello Bilbao, Antonio Tiberi, Derek Gee, Mikel Landa and Eddie Dunbar.
Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2025 stage 5:
*** Tom Pidcock, Juan Ayuso, Mathieu van der Poel
** Ben Healy, Roger Adrià, Richard Carapaz, Romain Grégoire
* Filippo Ganna, Andrea Vendrame, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Marc Hirschi, Simone Velasco, Kévin Vauquelin, Giulio Ciccone, Pello Bilbao, Derek Gee, Eddie Dunbar
Pick: Tom Pidcock
How: Short group sprint. I believe there will be plenty attacks but the GC riders will cover each other in the final kilometers.
